August–September Runoff Variation in the Kara Darya River Determined from Juniper (Juniperus turkestanica) Tree Rings in the Pamirs-Alai Mountains, Kyrgyzstan, Back to 1411 CE

A 606 year runoff reconstruction of the Kara Darya River was developed, based on the tree-ring width chronology of Turkestan juniper (Juniperus turkestanica) from the Pamir-Alai Mountains of Kyrgyzstan. Preliminary comparison between the snow cover variation and these climate/runoff reconstructions found that Central Asian snow cover may have strong associations with large-scale ocean-atmosphere-land circulations. The runoff reconstruction demonstrated that instrumental runoff was not representative of runoff over the past 606 years. The drought of the 1960s-1990s resulted in low runoff levels during the past 50 years; however, this probably does not represent a worst-case scenario for the Kara Darya because the runoff reconstruction showed additional extremely low runoff prior to the 20th century. The reconstruction will provide a long-term perspective on runoff variation in the Kara Darya River basin, aid sustainable water resource management and be useful in guiding expectations of future variations and water resource planning.     

树轮记录的吉尔吉斯斯坦东部过去百年干湿变化

利用吉尔吉斯斯坦东部chon-kyzyl-suu附近的两个树轮宽度年表,与CRU气温、降水资料和PDSI资料进行相关分析和响应分析,重建该地区过去百年的降水和PDSI,分析近百年吉尔吉斯斯坦东部干湿变化特征。结果表明：（1）该地区树轮宽度对降水和PDSI响应较好,利用树轮宽度年表可以较好地重建该地区过去百年上年7月到当年6月的降水和PDSI序列;（2）近百年该地区干湿变化具有明显的6 a、13 a和21 a左右的变化准周期;在1913年前后、1943年前后和1972年前后发生了由多到少的气候突变,在1950年前后发生了由少到多的气候突变;（3）吉尔吉斯斯坦东部过去百年干湿变化与中国境内天山山区降水变化一致：1890s偏干,1900s是最为湿润的10 a,1910s是最为干旱的10 a,1917年是近百年来最干旱的1 a,1920s-1930s偏湿,1940s偏干,1950s-1960s偏湿,1970s偏干,1980s-2000s偏湿,尤其是1980年以后到现在,天山山区经历了近百年最为漫长的增湿期;重建的近百年吉尔吉斯斯坦东部干湿变化能较好的代表西天山大部分区域尤其是西天山北坡吉尔吉斯斯坦境内的干湿变化。     

吉尔吉斯斯坦楚河过去407年径流量重建

紧邻丝绸之路经济带核心区的中亚地区跨境河流众多,水资源分配极不均衡.揭示中亚跨境河流径流变化规律,对水资源调配管理,缓解区域水资源紧张局面有深远影响,对促进东西方经济文化交流和"一带一路"建设具有重大的战略意义.文章选取中亚重要跨境河流——楚河为研究对象,利用吉尔吉斯斯坦天山山区雪岭云杉(Picea schrenkia...